The Russia-North Korea Military Alliance: Reducing Its Negative Fallout
Moscow needs to assure Seoul that it will not let its relations with South Korea deteriorate unduly.
Image: Micha Brändli via Unsplash
First Published in The Diplomat July 9, 2024
By James Jongsoo Lee
The recently signed comprehensive strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang is a worrisome development that makes the current situation on the Korean peninsula more dangerous. As it is most likely a strategic blunder for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow would do well to limit its negative fallout. Other stakeholders including Seoul, Washington, Beijing and Tokyo also need to do their part to reduce the current tensions on the peninsula.
What makes the partnership dangerous is that it contains a provision for a military pact that commits both sides to come to each other’s aid if either side were to be attacked by a third party. This pact apparently amounts to an official bilateral military alliance and a mutual defense treaty.
The danger is that Kim Jong Un, the leader of a nuclear-armed North Korea, may feel further emboldened by this pact and engage in military provocations against South Korea. Even before this pact, relations between Moscow and Pyongyang had become closer than at any time since the 1980s, as both Moscow and Beijing had become more closely aligned with Pyongyang against the West in the current Cold War-like global geopolitical environment. This pact may add to Kim’s sense of security that he now enjoys the backing of Moscow and Beijing and may encourage him to take more risks vis-à-vis Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.
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James Jongsoo Lee is Senior Managing Director at Brock Securities and Center Associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. He is also Adjunct Fellow at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum and Contributing Editor at The Diplomat. He can be followed on X at @jameslee004.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Pacific Council.
