Elections 2024 Update - Extremists Held at Bay
Pacific Council President and CEO Duncan Wood, PhD, shares his thoughts on the recent elections in the UK, France, and Iran.
Published July 10, 2024
By Duncan Wood, PhD
2024’s election rollercoaster continued last week, with three crucially important elections in the UK, France, and Iran. Prior to election day, there were widespread concerns that extreme parties would see their influence rise, particularly in the two European nations after a strong showing in European Parliament elections and the first round of voting in France, as well as opinion polls showing rising support for Britain’s far-right Reform Party.
On July 4th, British voters went to the polls and sent a resounding message. First, they opted for change after 14 years of Conservative Party rule, giving Labour Party Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer a huge victory with 412 seats in Parliament, compared to only 121 seats for the Conservatives. Just as important was the failure of the extreme right Reform Party. Reform, led by arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage, performed well in terms of the popular vote, but only won five seats in Parliament. The shift to Labour reflected not just dissatisfaction with the outgoing government but also a desire of a large part of the electorate to stick to the middle ground politically.
Starmer has promised to govern in a much more inclusive fashion than his predecessors, to focus on growth strategies and the concept of Securonomics (something akin to the approach seen in Bidenomics with a strong role for the government). On the international stage, he promised to strengthen relations with Europe, soften the UK’s immigration policies, and keep Britain’s commitment to NATO and defense spending strong. His main challenge is going to be where to find the money to make all of this happen. The UK faces a very tight fiscal reality after years of low growth.
On Sunday, July 7th, France voted in the second round of parliamentary elections and surprised most analysts by giving a victory not to the extreme right, but rather to the far left. The New Popular Front won 182 seats under France’s proportional representation voting system, followed by President Macron’s Ensemble Alliance with 163 seats and the extreme right National Rally party in third place with 143 seats. This means that no party has enough votes to govern, prompting Macron to ask sitting Prime Minister Attal to stay on until a governing coalition can be formed.
Three key takeaways from the election. First, although the far right has been kept at bay for now, their support has grown immensely and they are now the largest individual party (the others were alliances). This means that the threat of extremism is far from abated. Second, the leftist coalition may not hold together, weakening the prospects for stability. Third, in the face of this challenge of governability, Macron will find himself weakened over time, but potentially strengthened in the near term as he has the chance to show his statesmanship and negotiate a ruling coalition.
There was a third election last week, taking place in Iran on Friday, July 5th. As the results emerged early this week, it became clear that the moderate, reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, had triumphed with 53% of the vote, to the surprise of many analysts. Although he is unlikely to challenge the theocracy itself, nor change relations with the West in a significant way, the fact that a moderate was able to win the highest secular office at a time of high tension with Israel and the United States is cause for cheer.
But perhaps the greatest cause for celebration is the fact that election results in these three countries, as well as around the world this year, have been accepted by the losing parties. While Iran is clearly not the best example of a democracy with free and fair elections, the experience in the UK and France gives us hope that even as extremism rises, democracy remains the best method available for ensuring the smooth and peaceful transition of power. Let’s hope that trend continues throughout the rest of 2024 and beyond.
To register for the Pacific Council’s webinar discussing the results of the UK’s election, visit our events page.
Duncan Wood, PhD, is the President and CEO of the Pacific Council on International Policy. Dr. Wood is an internationally renowned specialist on the geopolitics of energy, supply chain policy, critical minerals, Mexican politics, and US-Mexican ties. Previously, Dr. Wood was the Vice President for Strategy and New Initiatives at the Wilson Center and worked alongside the Board of Trustees to design a new strategic plan for the center.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Pacific Council.
