COVID-19 & IRAN’S POLITICAL FUTURE
BY LAUREN BATTEN
The Pacific Council recently hosted a discussion about how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted Iran’s political future, featuring Hamed Behravan, vice president of independent media, internet freedom and Iran programs at the DT Institute; Dr. Alma Keshavarz, international security analyst at Carnegie Mellon University’s Institute for Politics and Strategy; and moderated by Peter Theroux, a writer, translator, and Pacific Council member.
Here are key takeaways from the discussion:
Behravan pointed out that Iran’s economy has been shrinking for years due to mismanagement, corruption, and U.S. sanctions. It shrank by 7 percent in 2019, with a projected unemployment of 30 percent. “Inflation will likely skyrocket, too, with the currency devaluing to unprecedented levels,” Behravan said. “The hardest-hit population is the lowest income bracket as usual. Protests began as social-political but since 2017 have been more frequent in addressing economics. As these protests have been more about the economy, the government has tried harder to repress them, but this requires resources and the government coffers are empty. If the government cannot pay suppressive forces it will be hard for protests to be kept down.
“Iran is likely more concerned about paying domestic bills than proxies abroad, but terrorism is cheap,” Keshavarz said. “Groups like Hezbollah are self-sufficient and semi-autonomous, they can function without circling back for domestic decisions in Iran. Thus, we will likely see activity from these terrorist groups.
“Iran has tried to downplay COVID-19 and other countries’ ability to address it, trying to position themselves as the best country in their region,” Behravan said
Behravan added that there’s a risk of Iran shifting to a hardline government, “which would be bad for its citizens and the world. Anyone who is remotely moderate is pushed out of parliament and the leadership. Any parliament member who says anything about working with the United States or other Western countries is shut down quickly and will be pushed out the next time there is an election.
Keshavarz said the intent of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign has been to coerce, contain, and stop Iran’s activities abroad to bring them back to negotiations. “Despite all this pressure, it’s unlikely that the regime will collapse,” Keshavarz said. “Even if it does, it will not likely shift to a Western model. An IRGC-led (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) Iran is possible if we don’t get a grip on the situation.
Behravan said the next year will be a challenging one for Iran. “They’ll likely try to run out the clock until the U.S. elections until they make any big moves. There will be major economic challenges and we’ll likely see a corresponding significant rise in unrest. Will the government control it or will it result in more bloodshed?”
Keshavarz agreed that the Iranian regime is waiting out the 2020 election in the United States, in order “to see if they’ll have to deal with a Trump or Biden administration. Biden may be JCPOA-esque. They’re thinking long term of who they’ll have to negotiate or not negotiate with in the years to come. “
Watch the full conversation below :
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The views and opinions expressed here are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Pacific Council.
