AFTER NOVEMBER 3: A PREDICTION
The Pacific Council recently hosted a discussion with Dan Schnur of UC Berkeley and USC and Sonja Diaz of the UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative on what to expect following the November 3, 2020, U.S. presidential election.
Here are takeaways from the conversation:
“This election shows how polarized and balkanized the electorate has become,” Schnur said. “The level of distrust between partisans on both sides right now means that they are expecting the absolute worst from the other side. People used to join political parties because of that party’s beliefs and goals, but now people join parties because of a distaste, and often a hatred, of those in the other party.”
“The one thing that will determine whether we know the results on Election Night or not is the margin of victory,” he said. “If it’s a close race, we might not know for days.”
“There’s a lack of information and a growing distrust of government,” Diaz said. “Not that much has changed from the mechanics of 2016. We still have disinformation, we still have the proliferation of voter suppression, and now we have COVID-19. It has made an already complicated job even more difficult, especially without congressional support and resources for a safe and fair election.”
“I’m excited about young people voting,” Diaz said. “Voting is just one part of civic engagement; it’s also going to public meetings, commenting in city council meetings, protesting in the streets, saying that you don’t want guns in your school.”
“The number one indicator of whether or not a young, first time eligible voter will vote is if they are raised in a household in which at least one adult is a regular voter, and if there are no adults that vote or are not permitted to vote, they’re less likely to vote,” Schnur said.
“With predictions, we’re estimating based on previous data and often underestimate turnout,” he said. “International bad actors are unlikely to interfere with the results themselves, but they get us to turn on each other and not trust the results when they come in. I hope that former presidents of both parties stand up to endorse our structure to stop panic around the threat of interference.”
“There’s been a lack in investment in engaging and mobilizing voters of color,” Diaz said.
“The most important thing is keeping Americans safe throughout the COVID-19 pandemic,” she said. “That should be our top focus. We need to modify the Supreme Court, but that’s not a first 100 days issue; the first issue has to be pandemic recovery.”
“Hopefully we’ll see a decisive outcome in order to avoid any problems, but I think we’ll ultimate resolve this in a peaceful way,” Schnur said. “Panic is contagious, but calm is also contagious. We need to set an example for our community and the world.”
“We’re already seeing a glimpse of historic voter participation in the face of a global pandemic,” Diaz said. “As the government struggles to get its act together, it’s incumbent on all of us to hold true and hold close that we have a duty as messengers to share information, to be fair and patient with each other, and to treat everybody with grace, humility, and dignity.”
Watch the full conversation below:
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The views and opinions expressed here are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Pacific Council.
