What Can We Expect from Claudia Sheinbaum’s First 100 Days in Office?
Mexico's First Female President Faces Significant Challenges Amidst Continuity and Change
By Alexandra Helfgott
Mexico has officially embarked on a new chapter in its political history as its first female president takes office. Claudia Sheinbaum won the election with 59.4% of the vote - by far the largest lead of any president since the country’s transition to democracy in the 2000 election. Sheinbaum secured over 3 million more votes than her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), did just six years prior.
Despite her popularity at the polls, Sheinbaum faces significant challenges coming into office. Rates of violence in Mexico are high – with an average of 30,000 crime-related deaths per year, a number that is not significantly lower than when AMLO took office six years ago. Disappearances in Mexico have also skyrocketed in the past six years, totaling over 51,000 people – the equivalent to, on average, one person going missing for every hour of the AMLO administration. This is up from the rates of disappearances during the Calderón administration (during which he launched Mexico’s war on drugs) which averaged .49 disappearances per hour and the Peña Nieto administration which averaged .64 disappearances per hour. Cartel infighting and violence are still rampant in large swaths of the country and it’s estimated that these groups control over a third of Mexican territory. On the economic side, the pursuit of republican austerity during the AMLO administration, plus the expansion of social programs throughout the past six years, has taken a significant toll on the country’s financial circumstances. The deficit is expected to be around 5% this year – higher than it has been in the past 30 years, according to Deloitte. Average public debt has hovered at 47.7% of GDP over the past five years but is expected to reach 50% this year. Mexico’s GDP is expected to grow 2.2% this year and then at an average rate of 2.1% from 2025-2030. In terms of migration, Mexico has interdicted nearly 300,000 migrants this year alone – almost three times as many as during the year prior. All of this serves as the backdrop for the recent Mexico-related news that has captured the international community’s attention – AMLO’s constitutional reforms. Critics argue that these reforms, namely the judicial reform and reform to put the National Guard under military control, further exacerbate the potential for democratic backsliding and militarization of the country. What does this mean for Mexico’s next president?
During her inaugural speech, Sheinbaum outlined 100 promises for her administration, which range significantly in topic and scope. Included in these points were promises to maintain the price of the basic food basket, electricity, and gasoline, vows to expand social welfare programs (with specific mention of the program for women ages 60-64 and universal scholarships for children), as well as plans to improve infrastructure, reduce violence, and foster development within the country. Of note, Sheinbaum proposed the elimination of political re-election and vowed not to return to the “irresponsible” war on drugs initiated by Calderón. She also vowed to eliminate corruption and nepotism in the federal government, prohibiting family members from succeeding one another in office.
Sheinbaum’s plans for security and peace in the first 100 days of her administration are perhaps the most well-known at this point: reducing rates of high impact crimes (particularly homicides), improving public perception of the government’s response to violence, and addressing sources of violence, specifically criminal networks. All of this is to be accomplished via close coordination and collaboration between her cabinet, the federal government, and state government leadership, as well as through the strengthening of investigation capacities of Mexico’s intelligence community. Sheinbaum will present her National Security Plan on October 8th.
There is also significant uncertainty about what will come next for the US Mexico relationship. The US election will occur 35 days into Sheinbaum’s term and the results will be a decisive factor in determining the future of the bilateral relationship, particularly when it comes to cooperation on security and migration, as well as fostering opportunities for nearshoring. Both a Harris administration and a second-term Trump administration will each present their own unique challenges and opportunities.
Material accomplishments and progress made during the first 100 days of Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration will be important, but even more significant will be the tone she sets, more specifically, will this administration be a continuation of the prior or will Sheinbaum break free from AMLO’s reins and chart her own path? From what we’ve seen from Sheinbaum over the past six years as the Head of Government of Mexico City, the Morena presidential candidate, and now president in waiting, there has been significant overlap and continuity between Sheinbaum and AMLO. Her platform, “100 Steps for the Transformation, 3rd Version,” is directly based on AMLO’s original presidential campaign platform “100 Steps for the Transformation.” In essence, use of this platform was a clear signal to voters that this presidency will trace its origins to the prior administration. However, does Sheinbaum’s significant victory at the polls give her a broad mandate to pursue her own policies or does this popular support better indicate support for the continuation of the 4th Transformation as originally established under AMLO?
The political landscape in Mexico has evolved significantly since the start of the new millennium – the country’s transition to democracy and now, nearly a quarter of a century later, the country’s election of the first female president. But, critics argue that Mexico faces very real threats to its democracy, particularly after the recent passage of the constitutional reforms. AMLO has laid the foundation for Sheinbaum to continue carrying out his vision. Should she broadly accept AMLO’s plans and see them to fruition, it’s possible that Mexico’s democracy could crumble. It’s also possible that Sheinbaum may chart her own path, embracing the Morena ideology but enforcing certain limits. While it's likely that the Sheinbaum administration will be a continuation of her predecessor’s, paying close attention to Sheinbaum’s first 100 days will give us some indication as to what the next six years may hold for Mexico.
Alexandra Helfgott leads the Mexico Institute's Elections Guide, the ultimate resource for English-speaking audiences on Mexican politics and the 2024 election cycle. She previously worked in the Office of Strategy and New Initiatives at the Wilson Center, researching and writing about supply chains, critical minerals, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and energy.
Prior to joining the Wilson Center, Alexandra was a Fulbright García-Robles grantee in Mexico. She is currently an MPP candidate at Yale University.
